Democracy uses votes as the “everyone’s knowledge”. It can allocate economic resources efficiently (Fairy well, I think.)
Market price system uses the same thing. It can allocate economic resources efficiently. (Very well, I think.)
Root of good point of both is the same, the everyone’s knowledge.
In the recent elections, I have voted for the LDP and Your party to get out of the deflation (for better monetary policy). I thought it is the first priority. “Japan gradually sinks by the tight-money”, I feared.
Finally, Abenomics occurred. Iwata-sensei comes to the BOJ policy board.
If monetary policy had run by the market (yes, NGDP futures), I did not need to vote for the LDP for the monetary policy. “Tight money! I buy leveraged NGDP futures! “
Recently, I often see in blogosphere about “rule based policy”. Political intervention is regard as the very bad thing. Wait. Democracy is using “the everyone’s knowledge”. How far different from “the market” decision fundamentally?
I can understand why many people doubt the power of democracy. Recent Japan, USA, there is a lot of counter example. However, if you see in detail, there are reasons why democracy had not worked. (Changing law of election, propaganda, the other issues in the priority…etc..etc..)
To make things better, I favor the option that “monetary policy should be run by the market”. I think it can be far better from the present monetary system.
By the way, I am an individual investor. I made a lot of money with taking stock market beta by derivatives from Lehman-shock to Abenomics market. With my anti-EMH models, I could profit from some occasions. The key words of the occasions are follows: (CITI saved 2009, light footwork SNB 2009, surprisingly stubborn BoJ 2009, un-informational selling sovereign debt in EU 2011, BB 2% comes to BoJ 1% 2012, EU is very bad actually 2012, whatever it takes 2012, Evans rule 2012, Abenomics 2012, Abenomics 2013-).
I don’t deny it is only lucky. The common things in my anti-EMH models are that using interaction of institutional moving pattern between political dynamics.
I am very tired writing English long-time.
Democracy is like a slow elephant. However, I believe that it will get things right. Someday, monetary policy based on NGDP futures market will be implemented in somewhere. This is a new my “anti” EMH-model.